Summary

• The war in Gaza is pushing the shadow conflict between Iran and Israel out into the open. There is a grave risk that this escalates further in Lebanon and Syria – where Iran wields powerful influence – and spirals into a full-blown regional war.
• The intensifying conflict in Syria and Lebanon is the result of Israel’s escalating response since Hamas’s attacks on 7 October and Iran’s “forward-defence” strategy, which aims to confront potential threats before they come close to Iranian borders.
• Iran’s strategy is underpinned by a decades-long effort to embed its influence in Lebanon and Syria. Western governments will not find this easy to dislodge, and an intensified coercive strategy to push Iran out of the Levant would likely be counterproductive.
• But Iran’s focus on preserving its influence and deterrence capability – which trumps its ideological commitment to supporting Palestinians and fighting Israel – offers opportunities to prevent a wider war.
• Europeans should now focus on de-escalating tensions in Lebanon and Syria; increasing conditional support for actors in both countries to advance local stabilisation goals; and intensifying their backing for structural reform that can slowly dilute Iran’s dominance.

Kazemzadeh, H (2024) Internal Journal of ACPCS, Spring No.15. pp. 12-31

The ongoing war in Gaza has intensified the shadow conflict between Iran and Israel, with a heightened risk of escalation into a broader regional war. Iran’s influence in Lebanon and Syria, central to its “forward-defense” strategy, has led to clashes with Israeli forces and proxy groups. Notably, the Lebanese front has seen the most severe tensions since the 2006 war, and Syrian conflicts have escalated with attacks between Iranian-backed militias, U.S. forces, and Israeli targets.

Iran’s retaliatory strikes following Israeli attacks, including the bombing of an Iranian compound in Damascus, underscore its commitment to deterrence without provoking full-scale war, wary of drawing direct U.S. involvement or reversing Israel’s growing international isolation. Despite these tensions, Tehran prioritizes maintaining influence in Lebanon and Syria over direct conflict with Israel or the U.S.

The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in May 2024 has not altered Iran’s strategy, as its leadership reaffirmed support for its allies and proxies in the region during his funeral. European leaders face significant stakes in preventing further escalation, as a broader conflict could destabilize the Middle East, provoke extremist violence, and drive refugee flows toward Europe.

The paper suggests a three-pronged European strategy: 1) Prevent immediate escalation in Lebanon and Syria; 2) Provide conditional support to stabilize these regions; 3) Promote long-term governance reforms to weaken Iran’s influence. A confrontational approach would likely exacerbate instability, while a gradual strategy could more effectively counter Iran’s entrenched presence in the Levant.

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